Appeal to probability


     
    Name of fallacy Appeal to probability
    Aliases  
    Type Deductive Logic Arguments, Formal Argument
    Description Assumes that because something could happen, it is inevitable that it will happen.
    Example "There are many hackers that spread worms through the internet. Therefore, if you use the internet without a firewall, it is inevitable that you will be hacked sooner or later."

    While using a firewall is a prudent and sensible measure, it is not inevitable that a hacker will attack an unprotected computer. The argument does have some backing logic but overstates the worst case scenario.

    FormThis argument has the form:
    Possible P,
    Therefore, P
    Treatment The argument is mathematically flawed. There is always a chance that P will not occur, and therefore, no proof that P will occur given its probability.

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