Base rate fallacy


     
    Name of fallacy Base rate fallacy
    Aliases  
    Type Deductive Argument, Formal Argument
    Description Using weak evidence to make a probability judgment without taking into account known empirical statistics about the probability.
    Example  
    FormMathematical error.
    Treatment This is a mathematical error. The error occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking sufficient account of the "base rate" or "prior probability" of E. It is addressed by showing the effective of the "prior probability" of E.

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