Base rate fallacy

    Name of fallacy Base rate fallacy
    Type Deductive Argument, Formal Argument
    Description Using weak evidence to make a probability judgment without taking into account known empirical statistics about the probability.
    FormMathematical error.
    Treatment This is a mathematical error. The error occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking sufficient account of the "base rate" or "prior probability" of E. It is addressed by showing the effective of the "prior probability" of E.