Gambler's fallacy


 
Name of fallacy Gambler's fallacy
Aliases  
Type Inductive Argument, Informal Argument
Description The incorrect belief that the likelihood of a random event can be affected by or predicted from other, independent events.
Example  
Form 
Treatment If for example 6 consequtive sixes have been thrown. People know from observation this is a very rare event. throwing 7 sixes consequtively is even rarer. Therefore the probability of the next number being thrown is less than 1 in 6. This is a fallacy. If the dice is random the probability remains 1 in 6. Previous events don't change the randomness of the current event. This can be tested experimentally and has been.

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